In the first half of 2026, luxury sales above $3MM in Ross, Kentfield, Belvedere, and Tiburon reached 97 homes, up 21% from 79 sales in 2025. At the end of June, 151 active Marin listings were in contract, translating to a 38% absorption rate, compared with 23% one year ago. Inventory remains constrained, and buyers are moving quickly when the right luxury property comes available.
Despite wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, fluctuating oil prices, and elevated inflation, the stock market has continued to reach new highs. Artificial intelligence is driving much of that optimism. Anthropic has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, and while OpenAI remains private, it is laying the groundwork for what could become one of the largest IPOs ever.
These are not typical IPO candidates. They have the potential to be mega-cap public listings from day one, with valuations near or above many of today's largest public companies. The likely result: significant new buyer wealth and demand, with too few homes available to absorb it.
This segment accounted for just over half of luxury sales. While median pricing remains below the June 2022 peak, momentum has clearly improved: average days on market fell to 26 days, nearly a week faster than 2025. Buyers are moving quickly on well-presented listings, and supply remains thin.
Sales increased 33% over 2025, and average days on market fell to 21, making this the fastest-moving segment in the luxury market. Pricing remained stable, while price per square foot increased 5%, signaling healthy demand for polished, move-in-ready homes.
With 14 sales, this was the strongest first half in five years. Median price rose 7% to $8.3MM, although average days on market increased to 42. Buyers are willing to pay for the right property, but they remain selective and are not chasing every listing.
Sales more than doubled, rising from 4 to 10. Median price increased 9% to $14.2MM, and price per square foot rose 11% to $2,903. Excluding one 2026 outlier, average days on market drops to 26 days, compared with an adjusted 38 days in 2025. Ultra-luxury buyers are back, and they are acting decisively on exceptional homes.
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Author: Jennifer Glassman and Marcia Skall, MBA. Award-winning real estate agents with combined 40+ years of experience serving Marin County and beyond.
Jennifer Glassman 415.309.5331
Marcia Skall, MBA 415.533.5721
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